The Improbable Election

2016resulttrmp(1st, update at 06:50ET with new map)

(2nd, update at 08:59ET to correct electoral vote totals on second map)

Last night was a nail biter for me, for both presidential campaigns and for most of you. I honestly did not think it was going to be this close. Obviously, the predictions of the political pundits were wrong. Donald Trump – for all his bravado and hatred towards minorities and women – proved that he was right about how he was going to win the election. As bad as all that was, last night proved that the polling firms clearly have no idea how people are going to vote. They were wrong on all counts!

All the polls showed a difficult path for Donald Trump to win the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency. Not one of the polls showed a Trump win. But in the end, Donald Trump proved all of them wrong. Over the years I have heard many complaints that election polling is detrimental to voter turnout in that voters might not cast a vote if the polls show their candidate is winning, or losing badly. I can see their argument but I didn’t necessarily agree with it.

However, last night the polls were proven to be fundamentally wrong across the board. They are expensive for the news media outlets and for the candidates. Many decisions are made based on them. Voters may or may not be swayed by them. But the question is – do election polls have a place in future elections?

Obviously, the answer is no as demonstrated by last night’s results. No matter how the polling companies spin it, there is no denying that polling is inaccurate for elections.

There is much commentary that will follow this election cycle. To say that this election was unconventional is an understatement. Along with the polling fiasco, there was much talk about the “Latino surge” but in the end, it seems that it was nothing more than wishful thinking like the one made after the 2012 election. To be sure, early indicators show that Latinos voted in higher numbers but in the end, they were not enough to make a difference.

By midnight, eastern time, it seemed to me that Donald Trump would be the next president of the United States. According to my version of the electoral college map, it looked like Trump would reach the 270 very quickly with a win in Arizona, or Pennsylvania. The early results from Arizona showed that Trump would likely win the election. He was also leading in Pennsylvania.

map-splsh

New electoral map added at 06:50am ET (corrected at 07:59am ET)

ec-map3

The major news media outlets were not yet ready to declare a winner, but from my perspective it looked to me like Donald Trump won the race.

Like everyone else, I have much commentary I want to share about this latest development. So, expect more later this week. If I am wrong about Trump’s win when I wake up tomorrow morning, I’ll update my election map and add a new post.

If Donald Trump won, as I believe he did, you can expect me to write more about him and his shenanigans for some time to come.

For now, good night and we’ll see what develops over the night.

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8 thoughts on “The Improbable Election

  1. Martin, the people have decided. It’s time to heal the wounds reunite as one country. To continue to bash Trump is counterproductive and will continue the divisiveness. Be a gentleman and accept the results.

    We need people to spread unity and civility not hatred.
    I wish you stop the spreading of the lie that he is prejudice. You have given Hillary a pass on every comment that was demeaning towards all minorities. There was no hesitation in using racial slurs on her part. She didn’t want a wall but felt we needed a fence. I don’t get your attitude and sense of fairness. You have totally personalized the hatred of a man. I have no doubt that hatred will be bashings to the point that won’t matter to you and others what he does. It will be wrong.

  2. Oh, there was a Latino surge, son…but not the stereotypical way you thought they would vote. All the hatred towards women and minorities was on the left. Thank you Donald J Trump for making Marteen irrelevant!

  3. Martin,
    You are a very good and objective writer, but your perception of latinos and of Trump reflect an reiteration of the completely discredited media. I thought you had high criticism of media, but you seem to fall for the obvious propaganda that it imposes on us. Do all Latinos want illegal immigration and open borders? Do all latinos want a welfare system to rely with little success in life? Do all latinos want Mexican-style politics that includes under-the-table pay to the political/law forcer? Do all latinos want a corrupt government controlling every aspect of their’s and everyone elses’ life?
    Tribalizing people never helps anyone, especially those you try to fit in a nice and neat category.
    However, exposing corruption and criminal activity, which Trump has done, is always something that we must applaud and support.
    Martin, I’ve only heard rhetoric from the media about Trump from you. What about how much Trump has exposed the Clintons, Clinton foundation, the Bushes, voting system, etc? I think those qualities far outweigh comments that are flippant and probably not fully meant, but only what many people in the united States were complaining about.

  4. Uh, oh! l have even more bad news for Martin “Mr. Reconquista Movement” Paredes. Not only do most Mexicans agree with El Presidente Trump on building a wall….well, for themselves because they believe in preserving borders, language and culture, which is something the typical neo commie demoncrat no longer embraces, but, according to the Pulse Opinion Research survey, most Hispanic Americans believe that too little has been done to enforce our immigration laws and support a policy to force illegal immigrants to return to their own country. Look on the bright side, now Hitlery has plenty of time to seek medical attention for her neurological disorder(s).

  5. Martin
    I tried to tell Ronald, Pedro and others to look out for the Brexit effect. What the people must now ask and demand media and pollsters to explain why they tried to skew the election in favor of Clinton. At least for the pollsters Congress must hold hearings, must hold them accountable for attempting to rig an election. It was known by some of us that the pollsters were resampling Democrats as much as three times more than than Republicans so they skewed polls with intend to deceive the American people.
    As to the small protest going on by the wing nuts in the Democratic party here once again we have media trying to inflame this non-sense when it’s a very,very small fraction of the American people protesting. Once again more media bull shit ,Most American media has no credibility any longer.

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