In August I posted a piece on how the Chinese trade war – that Donald Trump is escalating – benefits México bigley as Trump likes to say. (link) I was pleasantly surprised to see The Business Insider publish; “These US trading partners could pick up the slack if Trump’s trade war with China escalates” by Sam Jacobs yesterday.
According to the article, “Mexico stands to benefit the most as an alternative US trading partner” if Donald Trump continues his trade war with China. The article quotes a September 2018 study by Macquarie Macro Strategy that states that México has the potential to benefit from 26.6% of Chinese trade that is diverted away from China.
My post about the benefits to México came at the same time as the White House announced the U.S.- México trade agreement to ostensibly replace NAFTA. But as I have pointed out, the rehashed agreement is NAFTA 2.0, with or without Canada.
It was satisfying for me that the Business Insider article reinforced my original post, especially after the emails telling me I knew nothing about international trade.
However, more important to the U.S.- México geopolitics, this latest information, along with my pieces about México’s aerospace programs, military industrial complex and the continued Mexican economic growth reemphasizes my belief that México stands at the vanguard of a substantial change in the country’s standing on the international stage.
I’ll be adding more about this belief in upcoming posts.
Canada remains in talks to become part of NAFTA 2.0 but whether it remains as part of it, or not has little effect on México’s future economy.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO remains an enigma, but if Mexican history and the Fox presidency is any indication, the promises of changes will remain just that, promises. Already AMLO has indicated that the military will remain the lead agency in controlling narco violence, leaving intact the strategy started by the Calderón Administration which has been much maligned by many in México and across the world.
The Trump Wall remains unfunded and will likely remain unbuilt.
Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign by demonizing México and my countrymen. In the end it looks like México will emerge from the Trump era much stronger.